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| #373303 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 02.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOW THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 111 KT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND MEASURED RECENTLY BY THE SFMR WAS 84 KT...AND DROPSONDE DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 80 TO 90 KT RANGE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE OLD INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND A LARGER 50 N MI WIDE EYE IS NOW REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM MOREHEAD CITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...AND OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR INCREASES. MODEL FIELDS AND CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW EARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW THAT EARL HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/15. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EARL IS CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER EASTWARD IF THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AND NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 33.8N 74.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 36.2N 73.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 39.5N 70.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 43.9N 66.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 48.4N 61.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
