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| #373370 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 AM 03.Sep.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 ...CENTER OF EARL PASSES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 74.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ABLEMARLE SOUND. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER * STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER * CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 41001 LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 72 MPH...115 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
