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| #373373 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:15 AM 03.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015-020 AT ABOUT 16 KT. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 36 HR AS EARL UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST EARL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE COD...AND ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE ARE DECREASING...EARL CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE WITH THE WIND RADII EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON ASCAT DATA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 35.3N 74.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 37.8N 72.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 41.6N 68.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 45.9N 64.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 50.7N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
