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| #373439 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:21 AM 03.Sep.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 ...A LARGE BUT WEAKER HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 73.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE. THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN REDUCED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE COAST OF CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW HAVEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS BETWEEN HULL MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE ELIZABETH MAINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NUMEROUS CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS * STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM * TIDNISH TO LISMORE * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE * THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
