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| #373511 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 03.Sep.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 ...HURRICANE EARL REMAINS LARGE BUT IS LOSING ITS PUNCH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 71.8W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SEVERAL CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS * STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE * THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH * THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO DELAWARE BAY. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
