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| #373515 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 03.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 500 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FIONA IS WEAKENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS...AND ONLY A MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION REMAINS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS PROBABLE BY SUNDAY...IF NOT SOONER...OR THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA APPEAR TO BE DROPPING. FIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING 030/12. A SMALL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED...WITH ALL OF THE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FIONA BECOMING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PRIMARILY STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND EARL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL PASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND DECAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 30.0N 65.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 31.6N 64.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 33.6N 63.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 36.4N 61.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z 39.6N 59.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
