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| #373595 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 03.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 EARL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS 958 MB...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT EARL IS NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PEAK SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 55 KT AND A 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 67 KT JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC. THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH EARL IS INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. EARL WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SOON...AND COLD WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT EARL WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRANSITION COMPLETE IN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 035 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MUCH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT EARL WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A DISTINCT CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR BEING ABSORBED. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS AND RAINFALL TO MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 40.0N 69.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 43.1N 66.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 48.2N 61.6W 45 KT...POST-TROPICAL 36HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 06/0000Z 55.5N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 07/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
