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| #373717 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 04.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 44.3N 64.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 48.0N 60.7W 50 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 06/0000Z 55.5N 53.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 06/1200Z 57.0N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
