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| #374040 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 05.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN |
