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| #374140 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 06.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 09/1200Z 36.0N 99.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI |
