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| #374202 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 06.Sep.2010) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 ...HERMINE NEARING THE COAST...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 97.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI |
