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| #374204 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 06.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 LATEST AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION OF HERMINE IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AROUND 330/13. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HERMINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST AND SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE COAST EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS OF 47 KT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE...BUT THE EYEWALL IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR HERMINE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER THE CYCLONE COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 24.5N 97.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 26.2N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 09/1800Z 38.0N 98.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI |
