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| #374275 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 06.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333 UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56 KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL SHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 25.5N 97.5W 50 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.1N 98.6W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 09/0000Z 34.7N 99.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 10/0000Z 39.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN |
