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| #37445 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 04.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 HARVEY CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH MARKED CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX SOME...AND HARVEY COULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. HARVEY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...BUT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT. BEYOND 3 DAYS...A NEW SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. BOTH THE SHORT TERM DECREASE IN SPEED AND THE LATER ACCELERATION ARE SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 32.4N 61.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 32.7N 60.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.0N 57.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 34.5N 56.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 40.5N 49.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.0N 44.0W 25 KT |
