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| #37448 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 04.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 YES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP TROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS EARLY FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IN FACT...IT COULD REFORM ANYWHERE WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS MAKES TRACKING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 5 DAYS...GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE. NOW THAT WE HAVE A DEPRESSION...THE 18Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL PROBABLY GIVE US BETTER GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.7N 34.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 13.0N 36.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 14.0N 40.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 14.5N 42.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 46.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 49.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 53.0W 75 KT |
