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| #375042 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 10.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010 IGOR IS STILL STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF A STRONG AND CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE MASS AS OBSERVED IN BOTH MICROWAVE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY. AS WE SPEAK...FIRST METEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGE CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED BUT BETTER DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR IGOR TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND IN FACT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS ESCAPING FROM THE MONSOON-TYPE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS SHEAR AND WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST IGOR TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE IT WAS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL CENTERS THAT WERE ROTATING AROUND A LARGER GYRE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 11 TO 12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IGOR SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE. TRACK GUIDANCE OVERALL IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TAKING IGOR WESTWARD. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS WHICH FORECAST A MODERATE BUT A MORE REALISTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.0N 29.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 34.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.5N 37.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 40.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 18.0N 49.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 19.5N 53.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
