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| #375462 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 12.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IGOR HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC...THE CURVED BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MORE SYMMETRIC. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT ESTIMATES. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IGOR MOVES OVER STEADILY INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING IGOR TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. BEYOND A FEW DAYS...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH SOME SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND OTHERS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSER TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS...PREDICTING IGOR TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. IGOR CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AS ESTIMATED EARLIER...275/16. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IGOR ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE ERODE DUE TO PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.7N 44.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 17.9N 46.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 49.1W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 18.3N 51.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 18.7N 53.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 20.2N 56.3W 115 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 22.5N 59.0W 115 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 115 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
