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| #37558 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 04.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE HARVEY REMAINING A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE STORM. RECENT SHORTWAVE IR AND MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THE CENTER OF HARVEY MAY BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION. WE WILL HOLD OFF SHIFTING THE POSITION SOUTHWARD UNTIL WE SEE FURTHER CONFIRMATION. HARVEY IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HARVEY. SINCE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF THE STORM...HARVEY WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...UNTIL A SECOND TROUGH CARRIES THE STORM RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF HARVEY SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS HARVEY AS A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 32.5N 60.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 32.9N 58.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.4N 57.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 34.1N 56.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 35.4N 55.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 38.3N 51.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 41.5N 46.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 45.0N 38.5W 30 KT |
