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| #375842 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 13.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT. BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY ...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE LGEM...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FEEL THE AFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS AND THEN BASICALLY MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4. AFTERWARD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER HURRICANE IGOR WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS JULIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM AT DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 295/12. THE GFS... GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND THE GFDL ARE NOW INDICATING MORE OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF JULIA. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SHALLOWER VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE JULIA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE MODELS THAT INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.3N 27.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 29.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 30.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 32.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 34.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 23.8N 39.7W 70 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 27.0N 46.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 30.0N 49.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN |
