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| #376065 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 14.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING FORMED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE EYE THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER IS ALSO NO LONGER AS EVIDENT. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...INDICATIVE OF SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALREADY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 1800 UTC ARE UNCHANGED FROM 1200 UTC...WHILE THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS AT 4.6. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS SLOWED A BIT FURTHER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE CONCERNING THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY COURSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. FROM 24-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JULIA SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BEYOND THAT TIME...JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ONCE IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT AGAIN USING A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET BUT HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...MAY ALREADY BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTING JULIA. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT THE SAME TIME JULIA TRAVERSES MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR ADVERSELY AFFECTING JULIA. ALTHOUGH FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST... JULIA COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF THE PREDICTED SHEAR MATERIALIZES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 16.7N 30.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.8N 31.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 33.1W 80 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 21.3N 35.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.8N 39.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 25.0N 46.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 29.1N 50.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
