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| #376070 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 14.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 ...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/ BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM KARL. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. AT THIS TIME...KARL IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE... A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
