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| #376090 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 PM 14.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 ...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 84.8W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE AND NASA AIRCRAFT DATA IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
