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| #376116 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 14.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010 JULIA HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE...AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THAT FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 5.0 FROM TAFB... SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOW A LITTLE ELONGATED AND OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE...LIKELY DUE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT...IT MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH YET TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND SHOWN IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRASTICALLY AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION...AND IT STILL SHOWS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL ESTIMATED AT 295/8. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY...BUT IT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AS IT GETS STEERED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 4...JULIA WILL HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR...AND IT SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHWEST THEN TO THE NORTH BY DAY 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 4 BUT THEN WIDENS ON DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TVCN ON DAY 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.7N 30.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W 95 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 37.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.4N 40.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 51.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG |
