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| #376167 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 15.Sep.2010) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 0900 UTC WED SEP 15 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.7W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.7W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.7N 92.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.3N 94.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.4N 97.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 86.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
