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| #376169 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 15.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 ...KARL NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 86.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
