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| #376172 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 15.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL. FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST. KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS RESUMED. BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.5N 86.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.1N 88.3W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.7N 92.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.3N 94.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.4N 97.2W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
