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| #376173 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 15.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010 IGOR HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE EYE HAS COOLED. IN ADDITION...AN 0352 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED. BASED ON THIS DEGRADED APPEARANCE AND A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 125 KT. IGOR REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...SO INTERNAL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SMALL SCALE DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...USUALLY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...AND THE EYE OF IGOR IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS IGOR ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS. IN GENERAL...THE NEW TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF IGOR...THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OR NEAR BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 19.5N 54.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 20.2N 55.6W 130 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 21.1N 57.0W 130 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 21.9N 58.4W 125 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 22.9N 60.2W 120 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 25.8N 63.3W 110 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
