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| #376222 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 15.Sep.2010) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1500 UTC WED SEP 15 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER * THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z...INLAND AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.1N 91.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.9N 93.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.3N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 88.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
