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| #376281 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 15.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 ...KARL WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 89.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
