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| #376282 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 15.Sep.2010) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2100 UTC WED SEP 15 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.4W AT 15/2100Z...INLAND AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 88.8W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 90.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 92.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.1N 94.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.3N 95.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 89.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
