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| #376304 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:40 PM 15.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 700 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 ...KARL MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 90.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
