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| #376331 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 15.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 ...KARL ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 90.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEARING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS OVER WATER JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. KARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE METEOROLOGICAL STATION AT CHETUMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEASURED NEARLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KARL. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
