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| #376332 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 15.Sep.2010) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 0300 UTC THU SEP 16 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 90.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 90.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 90.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.9N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.7N 93.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 97.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 90.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
