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| #376333 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 15.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010 DESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL VIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH PREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER WATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL. KARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 19.4N 90.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 92.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 17/0000Z 20.7N 93.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 97.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 99.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
