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| #376401 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 16.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 ...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 91.6W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARL COULD BECOMES A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
