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| #376452 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 16.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD TRACK FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS... ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH KARL COULD GET BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY. THE LGEM MODEL FORECASTS 100 KT IN 36 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL 85 KT...AND THE GFDL MODEL 97 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 95 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO... AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 19.7N 92.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.0N 93.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.3N 95.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 97.0W 95 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 20.5N 98.8W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
