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| #376474 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 PM 16.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 100 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 ...KARL MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 93.3W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
