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| #376523 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 16.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 ...KARL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 93.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
