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| #376525 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 16.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM THE SFMR. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL SUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT. THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT. KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY. THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 85 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR IF NOT SOONER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO 36 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.6N 93.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.7N 94.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 96.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 19.6N 97.6W 55 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
