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| #376570 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 PM 16.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 700 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 ...HURRICANE KARL AMING AT THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 94.1W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
