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| #376599 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 16.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT... SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF 85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.7N 94.5W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 19.7N 95.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.7N 96.8W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
