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| #376633 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 AM 17.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 100 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 ...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 94.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH... 165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVING STATION ON SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 41 MPH...66 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
