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| #376670 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 17.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 ...KARL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...BEARING DOWN ON THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 95.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
