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| #376738 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 17.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 KARL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE 10 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED. IN ADDITION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE 12Z...WITH THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 103 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT. THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 260/7. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.4N 95.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.2N 96.9W 80 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/1200Z 19.1N 98.2W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 19/0000Z 19.1N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/1200Z 19.1N 101.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
