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| #376822 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 17.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 KARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT ABOUT 1630Z. BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE FROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT READILY APPARENT. DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. SINCE LANDFALL THE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.1N 96.6W 80 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 18/0600Z 18.8N 97.7W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/1800Z 18.7N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
