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| #377010 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 18.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NOW EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS WILL ALLOW. A BLEND OF T/CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB REPRESENT THE BASIS FOR AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF IGOR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND INDICATES JULIA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...JULIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ULTIMATELY...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF JULIA COULD BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AS IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT COMPARED TO BEFORE AND IS NOW 320/16. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A TRACK BENDING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TURNING NORTHWARD TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 28.9N 51.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 31.1N 51.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 33.5N 51.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 35.5N 50.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
