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| #377068 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 18.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010 500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010 SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR... AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED EVEN THOUGH REPEATED BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION CONTINUE FORMING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT. DESPITE ITS APPEARANCE...RECENT PRESSURE DATA FROM A NUMBER OF DRIFTING BUOYS NEAR JULIA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA HAS LIKELY RETAINED ITS VIGOR. BASED UPON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 3.5 AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INTENSITY OF JULIA IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE JULIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. JULIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF JULIA IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AS IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE TRACK OF JULIA CONTINUES BENDING TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 330/17. JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTER AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IT CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 30.6N 51.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 32.6N 52.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 34.8N 51.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 36.4N 49.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 38.0N 47.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 21/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
