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| #377122 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 18.Sep.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010 ...LARGE IGOR FORECAST TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY...WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN MUCH EARLIER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 64.7W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. IGOR IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SHOULD BEGIN SOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN SOONER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME THE HURRICANE MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE INVESTIGATING IGOR SHORTLY. IGOR REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA SOON ...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
