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| #377126 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 18.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO AND IT APPEARS THAT IGOR COULD BE A LITTLE BIT WEAKER TONIGHT. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THERE IS NO EYE OBSERVED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWS A PARTIAL RING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE EYEWALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...BUT STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY JUST A LITTLE BIT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AND IN FACT...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL KEEPS IGOR WITH NO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS IGOR WITH 85 KNOTS AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA...THE HURRICANE COULD EASILY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...ONCE IGOR BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL. THE STEERING FLOW HAS BEEN WELL ESTABLISHED AND WELL DEPICTED BY GLOBAL MODELS SINCE IGOR FORMED MANY DAYS AGO...AND IT HAS BEEN DESCRIBED IN DETAIL IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. IGOR IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN SOON. IN 36 HOUR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WELL ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN MODELS BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IGOR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL/ EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA SOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 28.2N 64.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 29.7N 65.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 32.0N 65.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 35.0N 64.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 38.5N 60.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 46.0N 50.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 23/0000Z 49.5N 40.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 24/0000Z 53.0N 35.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
