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| #37726 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 05.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE SSTS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS. THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS. IF THE LOW MOVES AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...IT COULD INDUCE WIND SHEAR AND ALSO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION TO THE DEPRESSION...RESULTING IN WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION PASSES SOUTH OF THE LOW...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE LESS HOSTILE..AND THE OCEAN IS WARMER THERE. BECAUSE THE DEPRESION DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14-16 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND A MODEST STRENGHTENING BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT SURVIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK IS THE GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST IS THE UK MODEL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 17.0N 39.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 43.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 51.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 28.0N 56.0W 45 KT |
